We simulate drilling time estimates using Monte Carlo simulations. By analyzing the time taken for operations in Offset wells we develop a probabilistic model that handles the variability in durations and perform Risk Assessment. Therefore, we quantify the probability of completing the well within a specific time frame.
By doing your time esimates probabilistically, the risk factors are considered in the estimate along with its possibility of occurence. A range in time estimates gives you a opportunity to take informed decisions.
A separate model for NPT is analysed and is modelled in the time estimates. By detailed study of offset wells, we can model NPT distributions which give us an idea on what to expect and come up with solutions to reduce NPT.